Thursday, January 27, 2011

A Failed Negotiation; Now What?

It ended with no result. It was doomed even before it begins. But I sometimes wonder whether the representatives from the Islamic Republic and the 5+1 countries, the US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany, would like to get together and; talk just for the sake of talking. 

I am curious to know if these two negotiating sides had envisaged any real solution to their prolonged nuclear dispute when they agreed to talk again after almost a year. Basically their talk is more like a hostage taking negotiation than a nuclear one. On one side of the table is sat a man, Mr. Saeeid Jalili, who represents an illegitimate government; read it a small group of people who has taken Iran and its people hostage and turning the country into a big prison. And just to be sure, he and his friends have been, accelerated in recent years, stretching their terrorist limbs around the Iran's immediate regions, since the Islamic Republic inception over 31 years ago, and more recently in Africa. Their recent arms shipment to Nigeria goes without saying. Questions have also been raised over their ability to have planted their terrorist cells in Europe or North America as well. Notwithstanding, when at the table, or from their tribunes in Iran, they surely try to communicate that message; clearly asking a huge ransom. They essentially say; your idea of prevalent human rights and democracy for the Middle East, Iran specifically, does not work; we want to be in charge of the country as we have been in the last almost 32 years; we want to run Iran, the most strategically important country in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, as the most barbaric dictatorship of the Middle East history; and you accept that! They also say that since we do not trust you; we want to have the Big Bomb handy as well!

On the other side of that table, however, the 5+1 is vividly conscious of those crucial propositions. But at the same time is very much attentive to the fact that in such hostage crisis situation; one cannot trust hostage takers. The stake is too high, and the embracement of a compromise at any price may prove catastrophic. Therefore for the US and its allies, Russia seems moving to become one and China is facing a hard choice-- my guess is that she has to come along as well, the single fact of the Iranian people's inspiration for freedom and democracy overrides the other dim factors. That is perhaps why since the coup last year, US and friends have been hammering this little group of Mr. Jalili and associates, mostly military persons plus Khamenei, with sanctions. The 5+1 cannot possibly entertain this little people's demands.

Now it shouldn't be hard to guess the single; but very dangerous question, the 5+1 has to find an answer at the table; can you give the hostage takers such a prize? I would say that is inconceivable--Tony Blair (former British Prime Minister) agrees, in his recent appearance in the committee investigating British involvement in the Iraq war; he reiterated the absolute necessity to have this people stopped. No wonder the 5+1 has sent Mr. Jalili home empty-handed. There was no other viable option. This only leaves open the door for serious implementation of the existing sanctions; expanding the scale and scope of them; and/or introducing more painful sanctions. Or else which is not my expertise!

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