Happy New Year

Sydney last night in a spectacular fashion celebrated the start of the 2011. Estimated one and half million Australians and tourists from all around the globe had gathered around the world-famous Sydney's icons, the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Opera House, to watch a well-done creative fireworks--it costs the NSW residents 5 millions dollars though. 

Nevertheless, people experienced a joyful night to carry with them its pictures through the year.

I would like to wish you and your families all a safe, happy and prosperous year.

Who Is The Real Human Rights Violator?

The UN General Assembly last week has passed yet another resolution to condemn the egregious violations of human rights in Iran. The resolution was also to underline the international community's concerns over the Islamic Republic treatment of Iran's dissidents.

While the Islamic Republic is not a stranger to such condemnations, it has been condemned almost every year since its birth over 30 years ago, it is a mistake to attribute the violations to the state of Iran. After all states do not commit crimes; individuals do. Just a quick look at the history of the last century, shows us that the history has not been in shortage of dictators. There have been many people in the past who considered themselves as political leaders, revolutionary leaders, head of states ... etc; and they all committed worst possible crimes against humanity that one could not even imagine. Examples are people like Joseph Stalin of Russia, Pol pot of Cambodia and more recent one, Saddam Hussein of Iraq.

In these cases it was not the state of Russia, Cambodia or Iraq which committed crimes but the individual leaders did. This view has been supported by the ICC (the international Criminal Court) in recent cases of Charles Ghankay Taylor, former Liberian president, and Omar Al-Bashir, the current president of Sudan. Both have been indicted for their committed crimes in the respective countries. Furthermore, while the UN itself, since its inception in 1945 and for whatever reasons, mainly politics which may have been justified in the past, had always restrained from directing its criticisms or condemnations to individuals, it has been slowly but surely drifted from this approach in recent decades.

Today however, the UN has condemned the state of Iran for the violation of human rights. But according to the foregoing examples, the state of Iran is not, and has never been, able to violate human rights or commit crimes against humanity. But the individuals in power such as Ali Khameneei and his Revolutionary Guards generals are, and most probably have been. They are those whom must be held responsible for their actions and condemned; not the state of Iran.

Tragedy at Sea

30 people have lost their lives, 18 more are still unaccounted for, and 42 have injured in a horrific sea-disaster last week just meters from the shores of the Christmas Island, Australia. Heavy waves smashed their boat on rocks on the Island on Wed 15, December. They were Iranian and Iraqi refugees, 90 in total, on board of an Indonesian wooden fishing boat.

It is said the trip was arranged by an Iranian people-smuggler. These people believed to have paid thousands of dollars each, including number of children, to secure their passage to Australia.

While the blame game was on--as usual, the underlying reason behind the tragedy of this magnitude was untouched. Politicians regardless of their affiliations were all jumping into race to make some mileage out of it. The relevant policies, immigration and processing of refugees reaching Australia, which could or could not avoid this kind of tragedy were discussed.

What was not discussed, however, was the situations on the ground of countries where these people had come from, Iran and Iraq. Iran, a country under a militarised despotic regime in which, only since the last year uprising, thousands of people arbitrarily arrested, tortured, killed and disappeared. There are still thousands in prisons, and their family are being threatened and harassed. Iraq on the other hand, 7 years after its regime change, is still unstable. The country hasn't had a government in power since its last parliamentary election in March. The religious and factional killing are still going on daily bases. Only months ago its Christian population were threaten to either leave Iraq or facing death.

Therefore before jumping to the conclusion and label these may well be 48 dead people as illegal immigrants or queue jumpers ... etc; Australian politicians may need to take a matter of this kind to the UN and its relevant bodies such as the Human Rights Council and the Human Rights Committee for the investigation of those countries' human rights record.  

   

What now?

Well, more than a year ago, after experiencing over 30 years of dictatorship, a new generation of Iranians decided to take the helm of its destiny. They went to the polling booths to elect a new president. They did that on the backdrop of the irrelevancy of their participation; had the leader and his unelected buddies chosen their own candidate. However, the young Iranians were clever. They purposely decided to participate and by doing so put the ball into the dictator's court. It was done in a unique way as well--by close to 80% participation. They basically left the dictator and his associates with no choice but to have the result rigged. For the people, the timing was right too. It was after the US presidential election and the international community had focused on Iran and its presidential election. In that sense Iranians sent their message loud and clear to the outside world; we are sick of dictatorship. The world received the message and responded accordingly.

Not only president Obama has so far refused to talk to the leader-appointed president Ahmadi Nejad; but he has also utilized the toughest sanctions yet against the regime of Mullahs in Tehran. The so-called Supreme Leader and his associates had wrongly perceived president Obama's message, when he offered an olive branch to the would-be Iran's president before the election. There was a little technicality, I perceived, surrounding the president Obama's offer. He was ready to talk and shake hand with a freely elected president by the people of Iran; not just 'any president'. That was a mistake on part of the Iran's dictator. My perception, up against the dictator's one, is supported by all of harsh treatments of the appointed-president Ahmadi Nejad and his government. The toughest sanctions yet have been drawn against them both by the UN and individual states such as the US are the direct results of the dictator's misperception.

What now?

Both the Iranian people and the West are against this little group of the so-called leader and his appointed government; for different reasons however. There are some facts to be considered first. This group has turned Iran into a big prison and the Iranians into prisoners. At the same time, in order to ensure their security, the group is eagerly pursuing a nuclear device. Simultaneously it has also activated all their terrorist networks both regionally and internationally. They had recently shipped two cargoes of weapons concealed as building materials into Africa which have been sized by the respective African governments. They are worried of their position against the Iranian people and the outside world.

But an interesting development this week added to the excitement of the Iran-West game. A recently released Wikileaks document suggests Australia believed that the Islamic Republic's nuclear activities are of the deterrent nature only. What does that mean? It may be interpreted as "we can talk to these people." This is a dangerous proposition. While from a westerner view-point, who has been involved in two wars for too long, it may look an attractive proposition; it doesn't work. The price is unimaginable. This little group has no hesitation of killing its own people by any means just to hold to their position. They have been threatening Israel and the rest of the world by their long-range missile capabilities. They have been actively pursuing nuclear bomb. They have an army of terrorists based in Lebanon--Lebanese Hezbollah. They have their connections with Syria, Hamas, Al-Qaeda and all the terrorists organizations you can name. Whoever wrote and suggested that 'we can talk to these people'; must answer a simple question. Does he or she really think if it comes to this group political livelihood; they will hesitate for a second to use a nuclear bomb on Israel or any European targets Or hand a device to their terrorist associates?! These kind of political analysis are just gross miscalculations.

In a simple hostage taking scenario; you cannot and should not negotiate with hostage takers. If you do; you will put yourself in a very awkward and vulnerable position in future. Now imagine a terrorist is going to acquire a nuclear device and have the Middle East and Europe and the rest of the world as his hostage. Do you talk to him or just simply stop him attaining the bomb? It does not really mean, in Iran scenario, attacking the nuclear sites is the answer. A big NO. Because these people considers it as their best possible scenario; since they still stand on their feet and they then can easily massacre their political opponents in Iran. That would be a disaster for all parties concerned. The best option is to leave the task to the Iranian people. How? By implementing the already measured sanctions on their full capacities. Given tens of millions of Iranians denounced the regime and wanted it changed, the economic sanctions give them enough impetus to finish the job.

On the other hand this little group is controlling billions of dollars of oil and gas revenues from Iran. Their livelihood and their terrorists associates are depended on the revenues. Well, put as much pressure economically as possible on them to make them realise that they have to choose between two options only. Either submit to the people's will Or go to war with the prospect of paying the ultimate price!

Sending any other signal may cause you getting what you may have not planned for.

Islamic Republic Is Neither Iran Nor Republic; And Not Even Islamic

The outside world has been deceived for so long to recognise the Islamic Republic Regime in Iran for Iran. The regime has also purportedly presented itself as a republic and an Islamic state as well.

Is it really a Republic?

The Islamic Republic of Iran is not, and has never been, a republic. It would be simplistic to call the Islamic Republic's system of government a republic; just because it has a president as its head of state instead of a monarch. Republic as a system of government has its own conceptual meaning. Oxford dictionary defines the republic as "a state in which the supreme power rests in the body of citizens entitled to vote", emphasize added, whom directly or indirectly elect their leader. This profound right of citizens is then supposed to be protected by law. That is the constitutional law of such state which translates to the contents of the constitution itself. In that sense a quick examination of the Islamic Republic's constitution, however, reveals boundless flaws which render it effectively worthless than the paper it has been written on.  Article 57 of the constitution provides "[T]he powers of government in the Islamic Republic are vested in the legislature, the judiciary, and the executive powers, functioning under the supervision of the absolute wilayat al-'amr"*, emphasize added. The article impliedly brings all the three branches of government under the realm of the leader. An example of the leader exercising this over-arching power was in 1981 when Ayatollah KhomeiniIn, the founder of regime, found his relationship with Dr. Abolhassan Banisadr, the first president of the Islamic Republic, lapsed; he had the president impeached by the Parliament and then removed him from the office. But article 110 of the constitution more explicitly, and without a doubt, removes the people's sovereignty all together and bestows it wholly in the hand of one person, the leader. It astonishingly confers the following powers and authorities to him:
"110 (1) Delineation of the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran after consultation with the Nation's Exigency Council.

(2) Supervision over the proper execution of the general policies of the system.

(3) Issuing decrees for national referenda.

(4) Assuming supreme command of the armed forces.

(5) Declaration of war and peace, and the mobilization of the armed forces.

(6) Appointment, dismissal, and acceptance of resignation of:

     (a) the fuqaha' on the Guardian Council.

     (b) the supreme judicial authority of the country.

     (c) the head of the radio and television network of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

     (d) the chief of the joint staff.

     (e) the chief commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

     (f) the supreme commanders of the armed forces.
...

(9) Signing the decree formalizing the election of the President of the Republic by the people. The suitability of candidates for the Presidency of the Republic, with respect to the qualifications specified in the Constitution, must be confirmed before elections take place by the Guardian Council, and, in the case of the first term [of the Presidency], by the Leadership; " emphasizes added.

 According to the article 110(6)(a) above, the leader appoints the members of the Guardian Council. The council then in turn, provided by the article 110(9) above, over looks the presidential candidates' qualifications and the suitability. Then after the citizens cast their vote; both the leader and his appointed council reserve their assenting power over the result. Basically the whole process is nothing but a sham. Presumably Ayatollah Rohollah Khomeinei, the founder of the regime, loved to assume such notorious powers--as all dictators do.** In addition the leader, more officially by appointing and the power to remove, holds his domination over the judiciary as well, article 110(6)(b). However, during his ascendancy except that of president Banisadr case, Khomeinei has never, at least in an apparent and obvious way, interfered with the the government's branches. By contrast his successor, Ali Khamenei, the current so-called Supreme Leader, has exercised those powers in many occasions --the recent ones were before, during and in the aftermath of the last year rigged-election. 

A year before the election, when president Ahmadi Nejad was in his final year of his first term in office, in a meeting with him and his cabinet; Khameneei had instructed him to plan and study his government policies the way as he would be president for the next 5 years! What he was signaling then was simply determining the result of future presidential election! The rigged-election therefore was his own play to ensure the Ahmadi Nejad election. And after that, his rejection of the demands for the investigation of election irregularities was obviously predictable. So was his orders to savagely crush the peaceful protesters on streets; extra judicial detentions; barbaric tortures; raping and the killing of innocent people.

The Islamic Republic is not and has never been a republic.

Is it Iran?

Having a president doesn't merely make Iran a republic. According to the country's constitution the people's vote has no effect on the final determination of a presidential election result. Appointing president Ahmadi NejadAhmadi Nejad into the office of president in a direct contempt to the people's will was a clear demonstration of constitutional power of the leader in action. On the other hand ensuing demonstration of power by tens of millions of Iranians on streets wanting their votes back was a clear indication of a clash. That is a constitutional clash between a dictator sitting on the top of the country's constitution and the people. This is a new generation of Iranians, almost 50 millions under 35 years of age, whom are against the constitution which was cemented in by the last generation of Iranians, their parents! In contrast supporters of the constitution, however, have always argued on 98% votes for the constitution. What they don't like to answer though is that who were those 98% people and; where are they now? The answer is simple. They are either dead or perhaps over 55 years of age. Those who are still alive in comparison with the new young generation of Iranians will form less than 30% of the 70 millions Iran's population. That was the leader and his associates dilemma when they tried to put Ahmadi Nejad into the office of president against the people's will. The new generation of Iranians had no role in the creation of the country's constitution. They ardently denounced it last year. When you are in a situation where people of a country are against the establishment in its entirety, the constitution; you cannot possibly relate the system and its government to the country. The Islamic Republic is not Iran.

Nonetheless, so far international community has granted this regime and its appointed governments, through out its history, their international status and recognised them as Iran. But we, the friends of free Iran, believe this attitude towards this people must be changed. They have no mandate from the people of Iranian and until such a time they do; they are not representing Iran and its people. Their representative therefore is only representing a dictator and his close associates.

Is it an Islamic state?

How Islamic is the regime? I am not sure, since I am not a religious scholar. But I only know that, by Islamic rules, rape, especially boys, is punishable by death. And we have been witnessing a systematic rape of political opponents has been adopted as a political tool against Iranian young during and aftermath of the rigged-election by the regime. In addition medieval tortures, in many cases people killed under tortures, and extra-judicial killing have exercised just for the leader to hold into his political power. We learned through the history of the regime that the highest or sometimes, again I am not an expert to know how and under what circumstances, a lower ranking clerics has the authority to issue a Fatwa*** for such crimes to be carried out. A Fatwa such as the one Ayatollah Khomeneei, when he was alive, issued against Mr. Salman Roshdi, the British author, to be killed. However, I haven't heard that such Fatwas can be issued for rape or barbaric tortures under which a victim can be killed too. Many Islamic scholars inside the country saw these actions unIslamic, condemned them and distanced themselves from them.

p.s. The statistics provided on the demographic of Iran's population are the authors' personal view only. However, the percentage of under 35 years of age is in fact registered statistic which compromises over 50 millions people. 

* The so-called Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
** Nevertheless, those who had anything to do with the drafting of such constitution are guilty of treason, treason against the Iranian people and their sovereignty. It is a matter for future investigation.
*** Fatwa is a religiously issued order. It can be issued to kill someone in the name of god or religion.

A nuclear negotiation Or just A time wasting exercise

I initially intended to present here my insight on the issues that - I think - may be on the negotiation table between the Islamic Republic and the 5+1 powers (the US, UK, France, China and Russia plus Germany). However, owing to a hectic week I had, I was unable to finish it. I apologise for that. Nonetheless, since the meeting is already underway, I am going to briefly express my view on what I think would happen in Brussels.

In doing so properly it would be a good idea to look back at the history of the Islamic Republic's nuclear program and when and how it started. It was Mr. Mohammad Khatami, former Iranian president, who on Feb 9, 2003 announced Iran's program for building sophisticated facilities at Natanz and several other cities that would eventually produce enriched uranium. February 2003 was a month before the invasion of Iraq, on March 2003, by the US and the Coalition of Willing Forces. Just a simple coincidence? May be or may be not. I found it hard to believe, considering the intelligence and diplomatic world, that a big neighbour such as Iran was supposed to sit dully and witness the mobilisation of a huge military forces around its long, over 900 kilometers, border with Iraq without being informed about it in advance. I would argue that Tehran had most probably known that the invasion was inevitable at the time of Mr. Khatami's announcement. It is also probable that, even before that, Iran had been given assurances over its security. Mr. Khatami's announcement then may be interpreted as what Tehran would have thought deters any future adventurer.
When we trace back Tehran's behaviour in regard to its nuclear matter in the past 7 years, it certainly points to that direction. The Islamic Republic, not Iran, we should remember that, during this period has always been vocal about its security--that is of course the security of a bunch of power-hungry unelected people like Taliban in Afghanistan or Saddam and his fellows in Iraq--and asked for a security guaranty from the US in return for abandoning its enrichment program.

If this is a correct assumption to draw a link between the Mr. Khatami's announcement and the invasion of Iraq in 2003; then it leads us to believe that Tehran considers its uranium enrichment capability along with its parallel long-range missile program--it is tirelessly pursuing--as its insurance policy. For Tehran, in that sense, nothing has really changed since the last meeting they had with the 5+1 over 14 months ago. The only change occurred in this period is that since the last year rigged-election and the following protests by tens of millions of Iranians chanting against the Islamic establishment; the regime has lost its legitimacy domestically, if not internationally for now. The 5+1 is now conscious of that fact; they heard the Iranian people's fervour for democracy. This single fact, I strongly believe, was behind the US' boosted confidence to successfully pursue and convince the Security Council, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the rest of its friends in the world to tighten the sanctions' noose.

The noose is now tightened badly around the neck of Revolutionary Guards generals and their political associates such as Ali Khameneii (the leader) and their appointed president Ahmadi Nejad, whom jointly overtake 80+ percent of the country economy. They are desperately trying to offer themselves as a viable partner at the negotiation table. But they are not; the 5+1 is attentive of that fact. It knows that this government and its representative cannot give what they don't have. They are unstable. And an unstable regime in Iran and the Middle East for that matter has no credibility to offer anything. Therefore the 5+1 cannot possibly afford to risk any compromise without guaranteed human rights and democracy for the people of Iran. Simply because it is the people who can give you guaranty and stability.

In this sense, any compromise on the side of the regime must force it to return to the same position as it was before their last year election-coup. This is, I trust, the desirable out-come for the 5+1. And perhaps the new sanctions were designed to achieve that goal. But Tehran did not expect it, and the scale of sanctions caught them by surprise. Very least--I would say--Ali Khameneei (so-called Supreme Leader) and his associates have been fooled by the president Obama's friendly gesture before the last year presidential election in Iran. They wrongly interpreted the president gesture as a green-light to bring the country under their clout, while--I believe--president Obama only intended to gauge their popularity and standing in Iran. When they failed the test, it came the most stringent sanctions against them.

These developments have changed the setting for this meeting, the parameters have been changed, said the White House Spokesman recently. The significant difference is that the Mullahs' regime has received a no-confidence vote from the people of Iran. The election-coup and the ensuing unrest undermined the very sovereignty of this regime. Iran now officially runs by mafia which has gone on rampage and indiscriminately eliminate their opponents. Now imagine this mafia has an ambition to acquire a Big Bomb too; the result is unimaginable! The new-sanction regime was a consistent response to this fact. What the mafia wants, other side of the table, is to be left alone and be given a security guarantee by the US. In fact they have always wanted it since the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Nonetheless, the US, its allies and the world community, understandably, have always been more cautious in dealing with Tehran for a single and simple reason; the young Iranian generation. The generation which forms close to 50 millions of the total 70 millions Iran's population. These are those who mostly were on streets chanting 'death to dictator', the so-called Supreme Leader. They are the crucial elements to be considered by the West at the table.

In conclusion and considering foregoing, this negotiation is not going to yield any meaningful out-come. The 5+1 has no choice but to tighten the noose and eventually, if it is necessary, use other means as well to hit many Middle Eastern birds with one stone. It also needs to stand with the Iranian people in their battle against a tyrannic regime which in a sense is for its own benefit!

A Screwy Supreme Leader Who Lost Touch With Time

More than a year later with thousands of victims many of whom raped; tortured to death; and killed, the Islamic Republic Supreme Leader, Ali Khameneei, was talking to his co-culprits Militia Basijis - the killing machine - this week.

It was during the Ghadir Khumm Eid - an annual festival which commemorates an event happened on March 10, 632 AD at a place called Ghadir Khumm in Saudi Arabia. He was telling this little but fully armed forces, against unarmed and defenceless civilians of course, that his political opponents were, and are, acting against Iran's national interests. A pious deception by a self-righteous person who last year dared to stand against the will of tens of millions of Iranians whom peacefully tried to retake their country back at the ballot boxes. But what he did was not only an election-coup but also a display of his inability to digest the reality of the real-time Iran. On the eyes of those millions; he is irrelevant. He is angry about that. The anger reflects on his further arrogant threats against people.

Whilst he and his co-culprits are extremely worried about the potential people's reactions to future ramifications of the UN-US sanctions and the danger it may pose to their illegitimate authority, they moved this year ceremony to a remote small area out of Tehran. Their purpose was to force a very small number of Basijis, probably in hundreds or thousands, into a closed area in front of their own cameras, taken photos and films purportedly showing a large numbers of fervent disciples. However, this kind of political gimmicks will no longer fool anyone in or out of the country; they only further prove that how desperate their situation is. Needless to mention, this regime has been in the business of feeding photoshop created photos and/or manipulated films to the outside world for years. I would not be very wrong if I explain their business as of the necessity of compensating steady drop in their popularity due to Iran's demographic changes during the last 15 years at least. As the population of young educated Iranians grew so did the numbers of whom ridicules his nonsense authority. That was exactly what he met last year on streets of Iranian cities.

Nonetheless, and regardless of their desperate manipulative attempts, to see the uncertainty of his shaky holding to power, one only needs to read between the lines of his remarks this week. "Our outside enemies were happy to see people protesting on streets and now they are trying to help them out", he said. He was referring to the sanctions and the following pressures for a democratic Iran in which human rights are protected. An Iran where there is no prisoners of conscious. An Iran where law rules. An Iran where there is no arbitrary arrest. An Iran where there is no torture. An Iran where there is no extra judicial killing. But the fact that he is an alien to all of these was depicted on those barbaric bashing; torturing to death; and the killing of peaceful Iranians last year. It further illustrates his incapability of appreciation of Charles Darwin teaching some 150 years ago that human beings need adaptation and variation in order to survive new times and circumstances.

But the good news for the Iranians and the outside world is that he and his co-culprits are nervous. They are worried about the unknown. That is the unknown results of would-be devastating economic sanctions against him, his generals and his close associates; the mafia which controls over 80% of the country's economy.

Now such a little guy in Iran walks around the region and world spending billions of dollars of Iran's money, belonged to the Iranian people, on terrorist or alike organizations just to inflate his feeble image and claim his credential in the Shiite Islamic world. However, scholarly, he is effectively nobody in the Shiite Islamic world. He is nowhere close to the prominent Shiite scholars such as Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Iraq, or of the Lebanon's late Sayyad Mohammad Hussein Fadl-Allah, or even many other Ayatollahs in Iran. Yet he self-declared himself the World Shiite Muslim Leader. In that sense he is pretentious too.

World has got nothing to be worried about this guy, his ability or his co-culprits in Iran or his terrorists networks around the region or elsewhere. Internally, they are weak and vitally vulnerable against the Iranian people. Externally, all terrorists groups they have been, and are, supporting are living on the monies coming from Iran's oil and gas fields. If you hit an octopus' head; his arms are of no use!  

Friends of Free Iran

As you may have noticed, I have been actively updated this blog recently. There is a reason for that. I, and the Friends of Free Iran, strongly believe Iran is now officially a lawless country. A country in which the concept of 'separation of powers' does not exist. Just because a constitution drafted so corruptly which confers in a single person - Wali Faghih (Supreme Leader) - such an absolute power that can only be described as fraudulent. A single person - today Ali Khameneei - who acts god. This is madness. A person at his 80+ years of age; yet by himself alone decides over the lives of tens of millions of Iranians and their country! A person who along with a bunch of well-paid loyalists, read a number of Revolutionary Guards generals and their Basijis militia, holds Iran and its people hostage and denies them their sovereignty.

This small group of people, perhaps, numbering less than 20 with a minority supporters of 10 percent or less out of the total of 70 millions people; have no right whatsoever to enforce their will upon the majority. Notwithstanding these figures are not scientifically produced, until such a time when an independent international body holds a referendum - simply because this regime has no credibility to conduct such a referendum - asking all Iranians, regardless of where they live, their views on the current system of government; no one is in a position to repudiate these numbers. Thus the very sovereignty of the Islamic Republic in Iran is questionable.

Friends of Free Iran is advocating such a referendum and strongly believes Iran must be returned to its sovereign; the people.

Counting Down for the Tyrannic Regime in Tehran

President Obama this week has urged the US Senate to pass a bill - currently is being debated in the Senate - to clear the way for signing a nuclear pact with Russia. He called the treaty "imperative for the US national security."

Interestingly the debate in Washington has coincided with other - apparently separate but well-woven - developments at the world stage. First and significant for us in Australia was the visit by the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, along with her Cabinet colleague the Secretary of Defense - Robert Gates. They were here to discuss a greater military coöperation between Australia and the US. Both sides emphasized on a stronger military ties which may be translated to a stronger US military presence in South-East Asia. This, based on China's global activities including in the region, should have understandably happened earlier. However, my guess is the White House had been carefully studying its arch rivals and calculating proper responses accordingly. What it meant is the US foreign policy-making-machine had been mixing all the available economical and security ingredients and put them into its foreign-policy-oven. What Ms. Clinton announced last week in Australia, and the president adamantly said on the importance of the nuclear pact with Russia are both - I believe - the end products out of the oven. The products are finally presented to world for tasting. There is a fundamental shift in policy regarding Russia though; and understandably so.

Comparing the Missiles-Defense-Shield-Program of the Bush presidency, seen by the Russians as a direct threat to their national security, president Obama has apparently walked away from it. Not only did that, he has also invited Russia to join a similar program which expands all over the European countries to protect them from evils in Tehran. But I would suggest it is not the president by himself alone behind the idea today. It was - I believe - probably the entire US political machine that reached a turning point in 2008 - at the time when Russia invaded Georgia. Projected by the current Prime Minister of Russia Viladimir Putin - president at the time - back then by his uncompromising action over Georgia; the alternative was unimaginable. That caused the US to change course in relation to its arch rival of the Cold War. Since then it has received good - but calculated - responses from Moscow.

And today in light of increased feasibility of using force, in order to stop Tehran's generals making a Big-Bomb and consequently endangering the world peace and stability, against the tyrannic regime of Mullas in Tehran, Russia's role has been magnified. In any event relating to Tehran, Russia would, undoubtedly, be a serious player. US now seems to acknowledge that fact, and accords Russia with incentives - rather than deterrents in case of China - such as the nuclear pact with a further option to coöperate with or even joining the NATO in future. The incentives may also deem necessary in the wake of a recent new development - the deployment of M1 Tanks to Afghanistan by the US after almost 10 years war - reported by the Washington Post. Russia needed its insurance policy in case of any significant escalation in the existing war in Afghanistan or should a new conflict with the tyrannic regime in Tehran triggered. The bell is ringing loud and clear for the regime in Tehran.
Notwithstanding of existing hurdles the tyrannic regimes are unacceptable in the Middle East and must be dealt with accordingly; especially Iran. Counting down for the regime in Tehran has long been started.

Are we heading towards a new conflict?

After a lengthy delay, the next nuclear discussion meeting between Iran and the 5+1 countries (the US, the UK, France, China, Russia plus Germany) is scheduled for December 02. Before that, I would like to draw some attentions to some existing discrepancies.

After the rigged presidential election last year, the legitimacy of the president Ahmadi Nejad's government has been stripped off by the Iranian people. Tens of millions of whom, world was witnessing, on streets of Iranian cities chanting against Ahmadi Nejad and the Islamic establishment. Now, a representative coming from Iran to represent the country has no mandate from the people of Iran. He would then be only capable of representing an illegitimate government. He should therefore be received as such only. He comes in his capacity as representative of Ali Khamenei - the Supreme Leader - Ahmadi Nejad and a small number of military and security people who orchestrated the election coup last year. These are the people whom committed enormous crimes against Iranians since then; and international and human rights law would define them as criminals against humanity. Iranians do not recognise the government runs by these people. The US has also recently signaled that "changes in circumstances" have affected any future negotiation; which probably should be interpreted as of meaning of the foresaid.

Furhermore and as a matter of fact, the very legitimacy of the Islamic regime itself with Ali Khamenei, as Wali Faghih or the Supreme Leader, has been undermined by the majority of people. And the legitimacy of this regime will never be restored unless the regime agrees to hold a referendum under a UN's mandate asking the Iranian people if they want such theocratic regime in Tehran. The chance of regime entertains such a demand is zero; simply because it knows better than anyone else that it has no legitimacy whatsoever. It knows very well that as soon as it removes the lancet from the people's throat; there wouldn't be an Islamic regime in existence anymore. This view is supported by the fact that close to 70+% of the Iran's current 70 millions population are under 35 years of age. This corresponds to more than 49 millions of the country's population whom had not been born, or must have had been under age of 5 years, at the time of so-called revolution in 1979. Notably this huge chunk of the population have got nothing to do with the establishment of the current Islamic regime except being oppressed by it. These people mostly formed those millions on streets of Iranian cities last year protesting against Ali Khameneei, the Supreme Leader, and the very existence of the Islamic regime. Iran belongs to them; they are the true owners of the country. And they did not vote for Ahmadi Nejad.

Considering the view point of the 5+1 countries at the coming up meeting, it would be imprudent by any standard to ignore these numbers; and think such an unstable government is capable of holding any meaningful negotiation on behalf of these people and their country. Nonetheless, according to signals already received from the world community since the election, I tend to believe that the 5+1 heeds the same view, though it ostensibly negotiates with this government. It has visibly avoided actions which inimically affect the interests of the Iranian people. I trust the new sanctions measured against the regime have been designed to serve that goal too.

At the negotiating table the 5+1 is facing some serious questions. Questions are included but not limited to: what an illegitimate government of Ahmadi Nejad has or is indeed able to offer without the support of its people? How stable such a government or regime are? How much can we bet on an old horse? Can we afford to be complacent in light of their active pursue of nuclear device?

All in all, an illegitimate government or its regime can not give what they don't have. The guarantee and authority lie with the people of Iran.

Please don't ever try again!

Islamic Republic Generals Are Contemplating A Dangerous Game

It was in news today that Mr. Manochehr Mottaki, Foreign Minister of the Islamic regime of Iran, has traveled to Nigeria. The purpose of his trip was to sorting out the recent crisis of heavy-arms shipment to the country which is believed to have been loaded in the port city of Bandar Abbas, south of Iran.

Reports suggested that two Iranian business men were purportedly behind the shipment. However, whoever has a little knowledge about Iran tells you that these individuals have not been in a position to simply ship such a military cargo out of the country. Unless of course they had the shipment authorised beforehand. Such authorisation could have only been given at the highest level of government and military - most likely the Revolutionary Guards Corp (RGC). That is why, perhaps, the request made by the Nigerian authorities to have access and interview the individuals involved, now took refuge in the Islamic regime's Embassy in Abuja, was categorically denied by Mr. Mottaki. His government and his fellow revolutionary guards friends in Tehran are worry, and they should be, about the out-comes of such interviews.

Nevertheless, I am neither really concerned about the real shipper or shippers of the cargo nor its contents. It is simply because being concerned about these are just time wasting exercise. What really concerns me though is the mindset of military people in Iran. That is those who last year did the coup d'etat against the people of Iran. Those who took Iran and its people hostage. Those who complacently think that they have established themselves as a tainted military regime; and the game is over! Those who by the support of their regional terrorist organisations led to believe that they have the instability of the Middle East at their finger tips; and now try to reach out their fingers at the instability-button of Africa and beyond.

That is a dangerous game this little minority in Tehran is contemplating. This game is my real concern; and I strongly believe that it should be the concern of the peaceful world as well. I am sure; it is. But there is a simple enough solution for the dilemma; only Tehran tries to depict it as unthinkable.

A Terrorist's Blunder

It seems to me that those billions of dollars of Iranians' money the Islamic regime in Tehran has spent to create and maintain the Lebanese Hezbollah, terrorist organisation, over the last three decades has returned its dividend. Beside sponsoring terror operations, it has also made the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrollah, confused. Two days ago, he called Iran an Arab country! "There is nothing Persian about Iran", he said.

I can only envisage two possibilities for such a blunder. First, since Hezbollah is the main suspect in the investigation currently undertaken by the UN tribunal commissioned to investigate the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafigh al-Harriri; Nasrollah himself is under immense international pressure. Nasrollah has recently rejected further access to his lieutenants. However and regardless of his rejection the tribunal is closing on his lieutenants, and he has visibly panicked. After all he is the head of this terrorist organisation and understandably under his command nothing would have been executed without his blessing. He has all motivations to have simply wanted to divert the international attention away from himself - or perhaps his godfathers in Tehran!

The second possibility on the other hand may well be related to the pressure on his godfathers in Tehran. Representative of whom, appointed president Ahmadi Nejad, was in Lebanon recently. While he was there, tension was on the rise all over the region. President al-Assad of Syria, Nasrollah himself and even the current Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Harriri, the son of the late Rafigh Harriri, all talked about the fragile political situation of the Middle East. Ahmadi Nejad has taken his government domestic troubles to the region - mainly Lebanon. His government and the Islamic regime are under pressure both domestically and internationally. On the domestic front, since the last year election coup they have lost their legitimacy. Millions of Iranians on streets of Iranian cities were chanting against the so-called Supreme Leader and his appointee president.

At International level they are on the collision course with the international community over their nuclear stand off. The interesting point however is that they are unable to divorce this challenge from their domestic problems - human and democratic rights for the Iranian people strongly demanded at the last ballot boxes. Undoubtedly the international community has heard the Iranians' wish and responded accordingly. The UN Security Council and the US have drawn the yet toughest sanctions against the regime of Tehran. The new sanctions have mainly targeted the Revolutionary Guards Corp and its generals. However, since the generals have their hands all over the country's economy, these new measures will have negative effects on almost all aspects of the life of ordinary people on streets. And perhaps this is the nexus which connects the dots between Ahmadi Nejad's recent trip to Lebanon, talks of rising tension in the region and the Nasrollah's blunder.

Notwithstanding of these possibilities and/or the intention behind his nonsense talk about Iran; Hassan Nasrollah must seek new fathers elsewhere. Because human rights and democracy for Iran are inevitable. And a democratic Iran does not need a terrorist and his organisation; and will definitely not spend a single cent on them!

Millions who opposed his authority are microbes; uttered the Islamic Republic Supreme Leader

The Islamic Republic Supreme Leader, Ali Khameneei, has recently visited the holy city of Ghom–the Vatican City of Shiite Muslim in Iran. And there he called the Iranian people; "microbes".

The visit was his first after 10 years. It came amid his legitimacy crisis in which he is battling since the last year presidential election in Iran. Since the election and his siding with president Ahmadi Nejad and the Revolutionary Guards' generals, he has been seen responsible for all the atrocities committed against young Iranians. He is also known as the master mind behind the generals' soft coup d'etat. Because of these, his reputation in and out of the country has been dented beyond repair. During the last year protests people on streets of Iranian cities have torn his posters down, burned them, and shouted; "death to Khameneei".

This forced the organizers of his trip to take paid-people, this has become a normal exercise for him and his president Ahmadi Nejad wherever they travel inside Iran, to the city before his arrival just to make a welcome parade! It was during one of his appearances in the city when he dared to call his opponents, the people of Iran and their Green Movement, "microbes". It wasn't the first time, however, his appointed president Ahmadi Nejad and many of his generals have done the same before; insulting the people of Iran and calling them names!

Nevertheless, and regardless of his insult to the people, the visit has been seen by many as a desperate attempt on his part to reaffirm his authority and legitimacy by seeking the Clergy support. He now, in the face of unknown repercussions of the most stringent sanctions yet taken against his tyrannic regime by the UN-US, more than ever needs the support. It is vital for him. But his authority and leadership have both been undermined by many of the same clerics whom he sought their support. And while so far he and his gangs have managed to oppress those clerics; he and his generals seem visibly anxious. Their anxiety reflects in his out of control calling millions who opposed him "microbes". He and his president Ahmadi Nejad are extremely worry about the consequences of the new UN-US sanctions. They have in many occasions threatened people against any possible civil unrest resulting from the sanctions.

Nonetheless, he certainly knows that selling of the bashing, stabbing, torturing, raping and the killing of hundreds of Iranians, in the name of securing the so-called Islamic Regime, to many prominent clerics in the Iran's Vatican is not an easy task. Many of these clerics have publicly denounced him. After all most of them had formed the view over decades, or at least purport it, that the Islamic Regime is a holy regime! And they have apparently been preaching the god's words for their entire life. And now they are witnessing such a brutality against people in the name of god and his religion, Islam!

To sum up, while it is true that so far he has been able to silence those clerics who oppose him using his gangs including militias, Basijis (under control and the direction of the Sepah Pasdaran (the Revolutionary Guards), which have constantly attacked, damaged properties, and injured the clerics' followers; there is not much time and surely not many tricks left up his sleeves. Martin Luter king Jr is absolutely right "that unarmed truth and unconditional love will have the final word in reality ... that is why right, temporarily defeated, is stronger than evil triumphant."

Islamic Republic Revolutionary Guards threaten the World Peace

Following this-week Supreme Leader's remarks about the possible retaliations against the western interests world wide, should the Islamic Republic regime(the Shiite Taliban) in Tehran being attacked, number of high ranking military and political figures have also threaten the West in the last 72 hours. The new threats came amid growing speculations over using military means against the regime in order to stop it acquiring a Big Bomb.

Among them was the unelected president Ahmadi Nejad who as usual used his antique rhetoric and suggested that on such event "the entire earth would be a battle ground!" He sounded more like a child playing a war game with his peers than the president of the most educated and politically conscious country in the Middle East. No one, should, takes this guy seriously.

Others such as the Shiite Taliban Joint Chief of Staff and his head of Revolutionary Guards were amongst those who came out and made the same empty threats as their president did. All of whom reminisced Saddam Hussein and his generals before they went on hunting holes.

Nevertheless, weeks ago there was more action than talk when a Japanese Oil Tanker carrying 270000 tons of crude oil had been attacked by an unknown object discharged from an unknown source in the Hormuz Strait-the entrance to the Oman Sea from the Persian Gulf. The attack was not considered significant then since it had not caused serious injuries to crew or damages to the ship. However, implied message was clear.

The attack happened just days after the European Union countries had unanimously passed their strongest measures yet against the Taliban regime of Tehran. Taliban in Tehran knew that the new measures were designed to cripple its economy which is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards and their associates. The economy which finances the biggest terrorist organisations in the world. Terrorist organisations such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas.

All in all Taliban in Tehran and its generals must understand a simple fact; Iranian people, their country and the world peace are not to be taken hostage by them!

Regardless of intention behind the President Lula's offer; it is a joyful news

President Lula of Brazil came in rescue of his Taliban friends in Tehran. He this week offered to accept Sakineh Ashtiani, an Iranian woman under a death sentence by stoning for murky adultery charges, as a refugee in his country.

The offer came amid an outrage reaction, expressed by world wide protests, over the Ms Ashtiani's, a mother of two, punishment. The protests forced the Taliban-like regime of Iran to suspend her sentence, at least for now. However, Ms Ashtiani's plight is not over yet. Whether it was the Taliban in the past Afghanistan or their current Shiite brothers in Iran, we all are familiar with their gruesome treatment of women in such situation.

Whether the real intention behind the president's gesture was to relieve his milking cows in Tehran or it was simply a pure humanitarian one remains a mystery to us. Regardless, and so long as it has the potential to save Sakineh's life; it is a joyful news.

Mr. Mosavi, I am going to be kind and only suggest that you have got it wrong!

Mr. Mir Hossein Mosavi, the leader of the Iranian Green Movement, has recently released a brief and expressed his view on new round of sanctions imposed against Iran by both the Security Council and the US. In it, he has given his view on the impact of such sanctions on the ordinary Iranians as well as the Taliban-like regime of Iran. He has also talked about the possibility of using military force as the last resort against the regime in Tehran.

Mr. Mosavi generally condemned the sanctions and suggested that they are only added salt on the wound of millions of already struggling Iranian families. In terms of troubling the regime itself, he suggested that those sanctions have no or little effects. However, this view contradicts the consequences of the austerity measures put in place by the regime to minimise the daily petrol consumption, Iran imports close to %40 of its daily petrol consumption and one of the major US sanctions against the regime is the imported petrol, in Iran over two years ago. At the time Iranian authorities were trying to gauge their vulnerability against such sanctions should they be ever imposed. That experience was a nightmare for the Iranian authorities. In an outburst, Iranians witnessed hundreds of cars queuing behind every single petrol station all around the country. As a result Iranian cities turned into a battle ground between the desperate people and the terrified authorities. Angry Iranians burned down many petrol stations in Iranian cities.

An interesting adding point to all of that is that it had happened a year before the presidential election in Iran. When there was no disputed election. There was no sign of millions of Iranians on streets protesting against the rigged election result. But today is different. For the past 12 months or so, we have seen millions of Iranians that used every occasion to come to streets and protest against the illegitimate Ahmadi Nejad government. We have also seen a terrified regime shuts the country down for days with funniest excuses, just recently because of the Tehran's Bazzar strike, the government announced a 3 days public holidays for hot weather, just to avoid streets protests. Now Mr. Mosavi should explain how he does not see the regime's vulnerability against the petroleum sanction. He only needs to imagine millions of Iranians on streets use the petrol shortage as an excuse to protest against the illegitimate government!

Mr. Mosavi, in his brief, also attacked the use-of-force idea as well. He gave the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as unsuccessful examples. He not only rejected the idea but also went further into the Iran's history and mentioned a so-called coup which had brought down the government of Dr Mohammad Mosadegh, the Prime Minister of Iran at the time, some 56 years ago. That coup has been attributed to the CIA. And the result was to bring back the late king of Iran, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, into power. Now Mr. Mosavi was somewhat suggesting the current military threat made against the regime in Tehran is a reminiscence of that coup. He was assuming that the US is trying to enforce a regime change in Iran.

Nonetheless, what Mr. Mosavi forgot to mention is a single fact that; it is the Taliban in Tehran that since last year election has declared war on the Iranian people and the civilized world. It is the regime that killed young Iranians. It is the regime that used rape as a political tool against young Iranians. It is the regime that tortured young Iranians. It is this regime that has been puring billions of dollars of the Iranian families' money into the belly of the most notorious terrorist organisations in the world for the last 31 years. The money that otherwise must have been spent on the well-being of the Iranian families and their children.

The important point Mr. Mosavi is missing is that the world correctly chose to stand with the people of Iran in their battle against the Taliban in Tehran. Taliban is unacceptable whether it be in Afghanistan Or Iran!

Iran's Taliban do not have much time

United States is tightening the noose around the neck of the main supporter of the world terrorism–the Taliban-like regime of Tehran–to deny it the unthinkable idea of acquiring a nuclear device.

US Congressmen and Senators this week have unanimously passed the belated petroleum sanctions against the regime. The sanctions were long expected however, it has been put on hold many times. The delay has been justified by lessons learned in Afghanistan and Iraq. Such sanctions could potentially be a trigger for yet another conflict, this time possibly involving the whole Middle East region. And because of the significance of apparent repercussions for Washington, it has been forced to first exhaust all diplomatic avenues. Washington gave the regime in Tehran every proper chance to change its course from its hostile position. But a little minority of Islamic fundamentals who took Iran and its people hostage failed to understand the gravity of the situation.

And when prior to the 2009 Presidential election they grossly miscalculated their status in the Iranian society, the society exploded in their face. They badly exposed their vulnerability to the outside world. These siblings of the Afghan Taliban in Tehran were foolish enough to display their illegitimacy in the eyes of the Iranian people. And mainly because of this reason–not to mention the retirement of the US Eastern Europe Missile Defense Shield plan and the recent US-Russia agreement on the reduction of nuclear missiles– the US diplomatic machine had been successful to bring Russia and China on board in the UN Security Council.

So looking at the number of votes in the US Congress and the Senate, 408 and 99 respectively, in favor of the petroleum sanctions–and perhaps more–recently, it signals the time for action. It then would be enough to add a recent joint military exercise by the US, UK and France, and the dispatch of the US aircraft carrier Harry Truman to the Persian Gulf, to comfortably claim that the Taliban regimes will not be tolerated whether it is Afghanistan or; Iran.

Iran's role behind the phony show

The Israeli commandos' attack on the aid flotilla bound for Gaza this week has dominated the media all around the world. But the propaganda surrounding it seems suspicious and the whole front becomes more like a phony show. Questions have been raised about the real motive behind it.

The flotilla was apparently organised by a Turkish Muslim-NGO to supply much needed relief to the Palestinians trapped in Gaza. However, when we saw pictures of arms such as knives, clubs and machetes carried on board of a Turkish ship; it raises valid questions which require clear answers. Who did carry those weapons on board and what would have they anticipated when they did that? What exactly was going through their minds? Were they going to fight? Were they going to war? Were they going to attack any one in this so-called peaceful and humanitarian mission Or; were they going to provoke someone to attack them?

The suspicion grows more when we see the Islamic Regime in Tehran tries to weigh behind this ugly show. The regime involvement is also favored by the fact that it all happened at the time when new series of the Security Council sanctions against it are on its way. The almost-certain possibility of passing the sanctions makes the regime anxious. The new sanctions are potentially fatal to its very existence. One element of new sanctions inter alia is the inspection of the commercial ships bound for Iran. This is critically important and handy for the US when it tries to impose its own petroleum sanction on the regime of Iran. Iran imports close to 40% of its daily petroleum consumption. The livelihood of millions of Iranian families depends on the petrol that goes into their cars' tank every day.

Petrol for the regime is pivotal; it is its Achilles heel. Over two years ago when the US Congress and the Senate started talking about the possibility of imposing sanction on the Iran's petroleum imports, and the regime started a counter measure to limit its daily consumption; streets of the Iranian cities turned into a battle ground between people and the authorities. Now you only need to add the battle of the families' livelihood to those millions of young Iranians, belong to the opposition Green Movement, on streets chanting death to dictators. A tiny imagination is then required to realize the nightmare this regime will have on its hand. It can not survive it.

That was why this regime went to a great extent recently and tried to derail the sanctions. The so-called Tehran-Nuclear-Agreement between Iran, its Muslim neighbour Turkey and its economic-strategic partner, Brazil, has been designed to impress the West and hinder the sanctions. It failed. It was ignored; and the sanctions are still on.

All of these left Iran and its Muslim ally, Turkey, with no choice but to look for other options. One option was to divert the world attention from the danger this regime poses to the world peace and stability. Such diversion could well serve Iran's ill purpose.

1389 Is Here

The Iranian New Year 1389 has arrived. According to Iranian calendar a new year starts at the first day of Spring in Iran. This year started at 4:32am AEST on 21 March.

I wish a happy and prosperous year for all Iranians currently reside out of Iran and of course those inside the country. Above all I wish and am hopeful that the 1389 be the Freedom Year for the Iranian people.