Monday, June 28, 2010

Iran's Taliban do not have much time

United States is tightening the noose around the neck of the main supporter of the world terrorism–the Taliban-like regime of Tehran–to deny it the unthinkable idea of acquiring a nuclear device.

US Congressmen and Senators this week have unanimously passed the belated petroleum sanctions against the regime. The sanctions were long expected however, it has been put on hold many times. The delay has been justified by lessons learned in Afghanistan and Iraq. Such sanctions could potentially be a trigger for yet another conflict, this time possibly involving the whole Middle East region. And because of the significance of apparent repercussions for Washington, it has been forced to first exhaust all diplomatic avenues. Washington gave the regime in Tehran every proper chance to change its course from its hostile position. But a little minority of Islamic fundamentals who took Iran and its people hostage failed to understand the gravity of the situation.

And when prior to the 2009 Presidential election they grossly miscalculated their status in the Iranian society, the society exploded in their face. They badly exposed their vulnerability to the outside world. These siblings of the Afghan Taliban in Tehran were foolish enough to display their illegitimacy in the eyes of the Iranian people. And mainly because of this reason–not to mention the retirement of the US Eastern Europe Missile Defense Shield plan and the recent US-Russia agreement on the reduction of nuclear missiles– the US diplomatic machine had been successful to bring Russia and China on board in the UN Security Council.

So looking at the number of votes in the US Congress and the Senate, 408 and 99 respectively, in favor of the petroleum sanctions–and perhaps more–recently, it signals the time for action. It then would be enough to add a recent joint military exercise by the US, UK and France, and the dispatch of the US aircraft carrier Harry Truman to the Persian Gulf, to comfortably claim that the Taliban regimes will not be tolerated whether it is Afghanistan or; Iran.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Iran's role behind the phony show

The Israeli commandos' attack on the aid flotilla bound for Gaza this week has dominated the media all around the world. But the propaganda surrounding it seems suspicious and the whole front becomes more like a phony show. Questions have been raised about the real motive behind it.

The flotilla was apparently organised by a Turkish Muslim-NGO to supply much needed relief to the Palestinians trapped in Gaza. However, when we saw pictures of arms such as knives, clubs and machetes carried on board of a Turkish ship; it raises valid questions which require clear answers. Who did carry those weapons on board and what would have they anticipated when they did that? What exactly was going through their minds? Were they going to fight? Were they going to war? Were they going to attack any one in this so-called peaceful and humanitarian mission Or; were they going to provoke someone to attack them?

The suspicion grows more when we see the Islamic Regime in Tehran tries to weigh behind this ugly show. The regime involvement is also favored by the fact that it all happened at the time when new series of the Security Council sanctions against it are on its way. The almost-certain possibility of passing the sanctions makes the regime anxious. The new sanctions are potentially fatal to its very existence. One element of new sanctions inter alia is the inspection of the commercial ships bound for Iran. This is critically important and handy for the US when it tries to impose its own petroleum sanction on the regime of Iran. Iran imports close to 40% of its daily petroleum consumption. The livelihood of millions of Iranian families depends on the petrol that goes into their cars' tank every day.

Petrol for the regime is pivotal; it is its Achilles heel. Over two years ago when the US Congress and the Senate started talking about the possibility of imposing sanction on the Iran's petroleum imports, and the regime started a counter measure to limit its daily consumption; streets of the Iranian cities turned into a battle ground between people and the authorities. Now you only need to add the battle of the families' livelihood to those millions of young Iranians, belong to the opposition Green Movement, on streets chanting death to dictators. A tiny imagination is then required to realize the nightmare this regime will have on its hand. It can not survive it.

That was why this regime went to a great extent recently and tried to derail the sanctions. The so-called Tehran-Nuclear-Agreement between Iran, its Muslim neighbour Turkey and its economic-strategic partner, Brazil, has been designed to impress the West and hinder the sanctions. It failed. It was ignored; and the sanctions are still on.

All of these left Iran and its Muslim ally, Turkey, with no choice but to look for other options. One option was to divert the world attention from the danger this regime poses to the world peace and stability. Such diversion could well serve Iran's ill purpose.