Monday, June 6, 2011

Are they playing us?

Of all political news out of Iran recently, the conflict between president Ahmadi Nejad and Ali Khamenei, the leader, has been dominating the media, both inside Iran and abroad. The clash appeared to have been triggered over their constitutional powers. 

Consequences of such unprecedented clash, however, could not understandably be contained at the executive limb of government. They fast transcended to the other branches, the parliament and the judiciary, as well as unelected bodies such as the Guardian Council all of which are Ali Khamenei's toys--or have a mutual understandings and benefits to consider. One should not expect for Iran to have -yet- a system of government as we know it in the West. There is no such thing as independent branches of government--they run the country like mafia. Therefore in addition to these more official and purported independent political bodies; Ali Khamenei mobilised his top brass military personnel in the Revolutionary Guards, its paramilitary militia Basijis, pressure groups (say street thugs) to attack president Ahmadi Nejad and his supporters. It was an all-out verbal war. They even threatened the president with physical confrontation. One could then only assume that a bomb explosion at the Abadan Refinery--Abadan is an Iranian city at the southern point of Iran next to the Persian Gulf--during a visit by president Ahmadi Nejad recently was a very loud message directed at the president!

Political assassinations have been, and is, a routine business in Iran's politics since its birth. A group of, eight to ten, high ranking revolutionary guards officers believed to have been close to Hashemi Rafsanjani died when their plane crashed months before the last presidential election. Months prior to that another military plane crashed over Tehran with over 100 top brass military and revolutionary guards personnel on board, all dead-and it wouldn't be hard to guess which side of politics they would have associated with. A young 26 years old general practitioner died at his dormitory recently; he had treated two young protesters, they had been arrested after the presidential election unrest, for their injuries received under barbaric torture, and appeared before a parliamentary inquiry-both young died. An academic believed to had been associated with the Iran's Green Movement died in a bomb explosion when he was leaving home for work. There is no shortage of the stories of this kind, 32 years of political assassinations in the history of the Islamic Republic is an interesting subject for a research study; for a very brave person though!

The parliament also, on leader's signal, threatened the president with a possible impeachment. After all in the Islamic Republic; the parliament is "the leader's parliament", said the speaker, Ali Larijani.

In first glance, for an observer and of course the people of Iran, these unfolding events portrayed a different president than the one who kissed the leader's shoulder years back in his inaugural ceremony!  

Notwithstanding it now appears, strangely, that Ali Khamenei wants president Ahmadi Nejad to stay on for the remaining two years of his second four years term in office. Hence as much as the questioning of the leader's untouchable authorities by president Ahmadi Nejad was a new and an unprecedented move in the history of the regime in Tehran, the leader's move casts serious doubt over their noisy altercation. Basically in short and midterms, if president Ahmadi Nejad and his government stay on and the leader's overriding authorities, as his camp interprets it, remain intact; then nothing really happened after all! Except the implied message sent by the president challenge that the leader is not a sacred person who represents god on earth rather he is a human being like any other and his authorities can, and must, be questioned. Apart from this, all the noise meant nothing and a little group of people who calls themselves 'the Islamic Republic' remains happy!

If it actually happens and president Ahmadi Nejad stays on and things back to normality somewhat, we left with the question that, as I wrote here before, was the conflict real? The answer is either 'yes' or 'no'. Given president Ahmadi Nejad caved in and admitted to the leader's wish and authorities; a 'yes' answer does not really change anything and is not my real concern. However, a 'no' answer raises different questions. Why did they need to stage such a play? What factors did force them to do that? And what are they going to achieve from it?

Generally from the people's reaction to the rigged presidential election two years ago, both Ali Khamenei and president Ahmadi Nejad have learnt that they have no place among the majority of Iranians. They saw millions of them on streets chanting against them and the Islamic Republic. They also remember that they had to crackdown the peaceful opposition brutally and put its leadership under arrest. These daunting facts, they know, have transformed Iran into an explosive device awaiting a trigger. They are also aware of the fact that denying the people of Iran a domestic opposition force the people to search for an alternative opposition elsewhere. And when one adds this to the unhappiness of a Western world which is tired of irresponsible behaviour of Ali Khameni and president Ahmadi Nejad; it would be a dangerous mixture for them. 

Yet I still have not mentioned the wave of revolutions against tyrants of the Middle Eastern and African countries. Ali Khamenei and president Ahmadi Nejad know that it is only a matter of time before the people of Iran loudly demand their human and democratic rights as well! Perhaps, remember we are still talking about the 'no' answer to the question of their conflict being real or otherwise, Ali Khamenei and president Ahmadi Nejad felt the need for a domestic but controlled opposition to the tyrannic regime of Ali Khanmeni--if this speculation is right, I think they are desperate. In this way they might at least try to tackle some of their serious challenges ahead. But the question is that for how long more would they be able to deny the people of Iran what the Egyptians achieved, and the Yemenis; Tunisians; Libyans; and Syrians are in the process of achieving? My answer is; not very long; not very long at all.

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