Islamic Republic Enters Danger Zone

"Britain cannot expect acting against the Islamic Republic's interest without any consequences", said yesterday the Chair of the Foreign Committee of the Islamic Republic Parliament. This is surely a clear indication that the invasion of the British Embassy yesterday in Tehran has been discussed and decided at the highest level of the country political and military apparatus. This also underlines the urgency of dealing with a dangerous few seriously threatening  the international peace and stability. They are none but those small numbers of military people who orchestrated the presidential election coup against the people of Iran over two years ago. They have taken Iran; its national wealth; and of course its people hostage. What do they really want? They basically want to be left alone to do whatever they want to whoever they see fit to only serve their own interests. They did it to the people of Iran and their country. They have been working hard to bring the Middle East and wider region under their clout. And now, with their intention to acquire the big B; they have targeted the international community. Invasion of an embassy and taking its diplomatic staff hostage is no difference than taking the international community hostage in wider scope.  

Final Exam

I have finally done the final exam of my LLB (Bachelor of Law) course last Friday. Having sat at an exam you know that is your final exam of the final unit of your study feels like a marathon runner sees the finishing line few meters away. The course has been part of a combined Arts (major politics which I received in 2008) / Law degree I entered in 2005. It was a 5 years full-time course and I should have finished it sometimes in late 2010, however, I deferred the course in 2010 and studied Post Grad immigration law for almost a year. Nevertheless, there will still be 6 months spending in the College of Law NSW for a Graduate Diploma of Legal Practice.

All these do not suggest a bit that I ignore the dictator and his collaborators.

Back to the old design

Many visitors of this site were apparently not using, and/or unable to use, the Dynamic View of this page provided by Google. Therefore I decided to reverse it to the old view version. I hope this would help. I am sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Why should the people of Iran eschew any future election held in the country?

The military controlled regime in Tehran; seriously uncomfortable watching the Libyan-Syrian developments, has embarked on a parliamentary election-campaign. It has released over 70 political prisoners mostly reformists politicians and encouraged the opposition participation in the coming election. The regime desperately needs the people participation. It is crucially important for the regime to depict a different political picture of Iran than to that of the Libya-Syria's and/or the ones of Egypt earlier. But the bad news for them is that the Iranian people are much smarter than them in a sense that what the people did; by the participation of close to %80 in the last disputed presidential election; was to put the regime at an election point.

That was electing between the return of the sovereignty to its rightful owner; the people of Iran OR standing against them ie a soft military coup. The regime wrongly elected the latter. The regime, say Ayatollah and his military people, was, however, right on anticipating that the road Iranians were putting them on was the same road as Mubarak of Egypt gone; Ghaddafi of Libya is almost there; and Assad of Syria must reach. But what Ayatollah and his military should ask themselves now is this; was it worthed? Only a few years more in power? At what costs to the Iranian people and their country?

They are now in a rather worse position than before; dire indeed, when talking about the parliamentary election and even future presidential one. Ayatollah is in desperate need to depict a different dictator than those mentioned above, he is right, to be fair to him, to the extent that he doesn’t speak Arabic! And he has no choice but to encourage Iranians to participate in the election. That was the reason behind the release of over 70 political prisoners recently, mostly reformist politicians. They even displayed the former president Khatami to speak about the importance of the election.

I seriously believe that Ayatollah and his military culprits gravely underestimate the Iranians’ political astuteness. That is obvious for they still do not realise the gravity of the ball people put into their court. They illusionary credited the people’s participation in that election to their own political smartness. But they may come to grasp the reality this time around, when Iranians stay at home for any future election to the same effect of what they did over two years ago. That is simply because the last time we, and the outside world, were being shown by the people what they want; and they will demonstrate the same want by sitting at their homes; on any days called the election-day; in future.

The people of Iran planted the seeds of human rights and democracy for the people of the Middle East and Africa whom are now enjoying the fruits.

Iranians are deserved the same fruits and they are going to taste it soon-I am positive.

Gaddafi gone; Assad faces the same fate; Khamenei has panicked

Before the Friday Sermon in Tehran last week, President Ahmadi Nejad has addressed the prayers. In his speech, he has questioned the Holocaust, again, and threatened Israel. While his appearance in the sermon and the threats made against Israel should be examined in the context of the political developments in Libya and Syria, it still has its old link to the 2002-2003 invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.  

Tehran has been using the rhetoric since 2005. At the time the Islamic Republic seriously believed that, after Mola Omar and Saddam, it is the next US' target. It appeared that they needed a deterrent against any possible future aggression. Particularly when their friendly gesture by the former president Khatami had been dropped on the deaf ears of the then US President George W. Bush and Dick Cheney whom rather aggressively rejected the gesture. Since then whenever pressures on Tehran increase, whether it be political, nuclear or military; President Ahmadi Nejad repeats the threats. The over usage of these threats, however, somehow turn them into an empty rhetoric. What makes the rhetoric more ridiculous today is the fact that Bashar Al Assad, Tehran's strategic partner in the region, is awaiting his fate to be handed down by the Syrian people. It is pretty clear, from the daily news coming out of the country, that now that Gaddafi has departed, Assad is in the departure lounge waiting! One can only hope that Tehran familiarises itself with these realities sooner than later.

However, if Tehran still insists that spending billions of dollars of Iran's money on the Middle Eastern terrorist organisations such as Lebanese Hezbollah or Palestinian Hamas or country such as Syria is their insurance policy against their human and democratic liabilities owed to the people of Iran; they are fatally mistaken. By Assad's departure, when it comes, Tehran would face the people of Iran and their democratic demands. Regime in Tehran would then neither be in a position to dictate its terms to its own people nor to the outside world.

Finally the only message one can relay to Tehran is that: instead of shouting threats, it would be wiser to simply acknowledge the new reality of the Middle East; a Dictator-Free Middle East. The new Middle East would not entertain dictators, and it would be embarrassingly naive to think otherwise. Millions of new generation Iranians have already handed down their verdict on the legitimacy of the regime in Tehran. Hence Tehran, take the Iran's political system into the operating room and get on with the well-over-due critical surgeries! Otherwise it would be a costly exercise to make you realize the new order.  

Notwithstanding of the foregoing Tehran's shouting is not a bad thing in itself after all. It tells us that; they are worry.

Islamic Republic Only Responds to Real Power

President Ahmadi Nejad of Iran has signalled the Islamic Republic's positive view towards Russian step-by-step nuclear offer. The offer has been on the table for a long time but the Islamic Republic had categorically rejected it before. The question is what has forced Tehran to change its view now.

Perhaps we should search for the reason on the other side of the globe in Washington. The US State Department is reviewing its terrorist organisations list. And the People's Mojahedin E Khalgh (MEK) of Iran, the most organised opposition group to the regime of Tehran, has a real chance of being removed from the list. While the Tehran's recent response may well be a tactical one to derail the possibility of the MEK removal from the list; it once again corroborates the true nature of a regime which is extremely vulnerable against its own people, internally. 

Conscious of this reality combined with the fact that the MEK is the only group among the opposition of the IRI abroad capable of standing against the Tehran's military machine; the IRI had no choice but to take a much more prudent approach. Especially after Egypt; now in Libya and imminently in Syria; the Iranians are witnessing how easy is to get rid of a dictator. The IRI therefore decided to utilise its main bargain chip, the disputed uranium enrichment, against the US. However, at the time of writing the IRI mobilizes its former president, Muhmmad Khatami, the West-sweetheart, as well to publicly announce his intention to run for the presidency in the coming presidential election next year. Both the nuclear signal and the Khatami's announcement are designed to cloud the State Department's mind. But what the IRI also flagged inadvertently was its vulnerability and apprehension. The IRI will do, I believe, whatever it takes to hinder the possibility of the MEK's removal from the list first. And it will also go to any extent necessary to keep the flares of the Egyptian; Libyan; and the Syrian revolutions away from the highly flammable Iran's society.

But the US must be very cautious in dealing with President Ahmadi Nejad and his friends in Tehran. Their announced readiness to discuss the Russian nuclear offer is only that; "readiness to discuss", nothing more. It does not necessarily mean anything. They have over played this tactic before and are known for using such tactics as long as it serves their purpose. It is now up to the US as to whether it falls into the same trap once again or not.

The MEK's members are the only people determined enough to stand and fight back the kind of atrocities committed against the peaceful Iranians by the Revolutionary Guards; its paramilitary branch(Basijis); police; and their plain cloths organised pressure groups over two years ago. The IRI therefore sees the MEK as the only credible threat, in a sense of fighting its fully-armed military machine, to its existence. As a matter of fact, since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, it has done all it could through its proxies in Iraq to eliminate this group in Camp Ashraf.

The US has a golden opportunity to remove the group from its terrorist list now; and assisting itself by assisting the Iranians in their battle towards human rights and democracy.

Thank you

Something good and interesting has happened this week. I don't know how but it is extremely encouraging. Number of readers on my both blogs English, here, and the Persian, Farsi, here, has jumped by almost two hundred percent. I thank you all for your time spent here. That gives me extra needed energy to up-date my blogs more regularly.

I believe we are going through a period of political transformation in the Middle East, Africa and the wider world. While few dictators of the regions have already been toppled; the Libyan; Syrian and the one who speaks my language are desperately resisting. That is why I strive to write as much and as often as I possibly can here. We need to monitoring the situation on the grounds in those countries constantly and continuously. We then convey unfolding events and information to the wider audience promptly. That is my intention.